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A miniature tornado hit south Manchester on Friday
A miniature tornado hit south Manchester on Friday. Photograph: Dan Teasdale/PA
A miniature tornado hit south Manchester on Friday. Photograph: Dan Teasdale/PA

UK summer weather: tornadoes, torrential rain – and a heatwave

This article is more than 4 years old

Unsettled pattern forecast to continue after Manchester hit by tornado on Friday

Britain’s mixed weather is expected to continue with a potential heatwave, torrential rain and thunderstorms forecast.

The Met Office said there was a danger of heavy showers and localised flooding in some parts before the sunshine was forecast to break through early next week as the school summer holidays begin.

It comes after a miniature tornado swept through Greater Manchester at about 5pm on Friday, damaging buildings and cars and leaving debris strewn in its wake.

Mini-tornadoes are known as funnel clouds until they touch the ground and cause damage. There are normally between 30 and 50 a year in Britain.

The latest one hit areas around Manchester airport to the south of the city centre on Friday.

The Met Office posted data from Manchester airport, saying: “Not very often an airport reports a funnel cloud but @manairport’s earlier observation reported ‘FC’ with heavy showers.”

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How global heating is causing more extreme weather

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Greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, forest destruction and other human activities are trapping heat and putting more energy into the climate system. 

Hotter air means heatwaves are much more likely. For example, scientists now say the unprecedented heat and wildfires across the northern hemisphere in 2018 “could not have occurred without human-induced climate change”. In Australia, the scorching summer of 2016-17 in New South Wales was made at least 50 times more likely by global heating, linking it directly to climate change.

Hotter air can also carry more water vapour, meaning more intense rain and more flooding. 

Another important factor in the northern hemisphere is the impact of changes in the Arctic. The polar region is heating more rapidly, reducing the temperature difference with lower latitudes. There is strong evidence that this is weakening the planetary waves (including the jet stream) that normally meander over Europe, Asia and North America.

When these waves stall, weather gets fixed over regions and becomes extreme. This has been linked to past floods in Pakistan, heatwaves in Russia and drought in California. 

Most of the planet’s trapped heat goes into the oceans and rising sea temperatures mean more energy for hurricanes and typhoons. The deluge delivered in the US by Hurricane Harvey in 2017 was made three times more likely by climate change. Rising sea level also means storms cause more coastal damage.

Natural variability would cause some extreme weather, even without global heating, but human impacts on the climate make such extremes more likely. Carbon Brief analysed more than 230 studies and found 95% of heatwaves were made more likely or worse by climate change. For droughts, 65% were definitely affected by our hotter world, while the figure for floods was 57%. 

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In 2005, one of the strongest tornadoes ever recorded in the UK hit Birmingham, carving a 4-mile path of destruction through the suburbs of the city and leaving 19 people injured.

Heavy rain is expected across western Scotland on Sunday, which may lead to some localised flooding and travel disruption, according to the Met Office. The weather warning for Scotland will remain in place into next week.

For England and Wales temperatures will increase from Sunday with potential for a heatwave and a high of 34C.

Temperatures in London are predicted to peak at 32C on Wednesday, while on Tuesday the mercury could rise to 28C in Manchester, 30C in Bristol, and 29C in Birmingham and Brighton.

Andy Page, the chief meteorologist at the Met Office, said: “As we head into next week temperatures will increase daily across much of England and Wales as hot air is drawn up from France and Spain.

“Temperatures could reach 34C by Wednesday in parts of central, southern or eastern areas and heatwave thresholds are likely to be reached in some places.”

In Scotland and the north-west of England, rain could be heavy later into next week with periods of strong wind bringing a risk of coastal gales.

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  • UK weather: temperatures near 35C on hottest day of year so far

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  • Police issue UK hot weather warning after three die in 24 hours

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