Meteorologist
kalain.hosein@guardian.co.tt
T&T is on the cusp of the year’s most disastrous period—the 2024 wet and hurricane seasons. Every year for the last decade, the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service has declared the start of the local Wet Season in May. Then, one month later, the (TTMS) Atlantic Hurricane Season kicks off on June 1.
From June through December, T&T experiences nearly every type of hazardous weather typical to our region: strong winds from tropical cyclones, tropical waves and run-of-the-mill thunderstorms, frequent lightning, torrential rainfall producing flooding, funnel clouds, waterspouts, and the rarer phenomena, hail and tornadoes—to even hot spells!
But, in the age of social media, there is another danger looming—misinformation. While the social media presence of official channels, such as the TTMS, the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management, and the Ministry of Rural Development and Local Government, has increased, previously existing information vacuums have led to unofficial sources of information gaining an authoritative voice.
It would be remiss of me not to mention that I founded one of these unofficial sources, the Trinidad and Tobago Weather Center, which is now used by the public and official sources alike during times of inclement weather and natural hazards.
However, by my count, there are over 50 Facebook groups and pages, 20 WhatsApp groups, and several other groups/pages solely reporting on weather and its impacts on T&T. The majority of these pages and groups are managed by weather enthusiasts without any professional training in meteorology. Some of them even admit to being secondary school or university students.
Even more incredulous, some of the more popular groups and pages, boasting a following of tens of thousands of people, use the platforms as a sounding board for their dreams of “life-threatening weather” and noting that “a major 8.0 earthquake will strike.”
The result is a prolific spread of misinformation and disinformation, especially during the wet and hurricane seasons. Over the last five years as the meteorologist at Guardian Media, when a storm is nearing the Lesser Antilles, and even if T&T is far from being threatened, I have to spend time online and on-air dispelling rumours originating from these same groups and individuals.
At the TTMS, the scene is much more chaotic, as their direct phone lines to the public will be ringing constantly, with the common question on the other side, “Is this true?”
This problem isn’t just a local issue. At the last three meetings of the Region Four (RA IV) Hurricane Committee, where meteorological officials from across the Caribbean, Northern South America, Central America, and North America meet annually to review the previous Hurricane Season, nearly every meteorological office has complained about the time they spend refuting rumours and misinformation that originate online.
So, where do we go from here? Firstly, tap into the potential. Many of these pages are run by people interested in the weather but lack the opportunity to formally pursue meteorology training due to the financial burden or the academic rigour required. This could be an opportunity for the Government to properly staff a Met Service suffering from a lack of human capital. For the first time in its operational history, “manpower constraints” at the TTMS, in July 2023, temporarily delayed Caribbean Airlines Limited flights out and into Piarco as the Met Service was unable to issue the requisite forecasts and reports for safe flight operations.
The Government, at the end of 1982, invited applications from nationals to apply for scholarships to train at the now Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology to become a Meteorological Assistant I at the Met Office. Then, in 1984, the Government issued two more scholarships to train for the same position.
The second action would be penalising the most egregious offenders. At COP27, the Coordinating Director of the Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO), the regional arm of the World Meteorological Organization, explained that action is coming to the “social media meteorologists” who cause trouble.
Dr Arlene Laing explained to the audience that when the Atlantic Hurricane Season begins, as soon as a “puff of clouds” moves off the African coast, social media pages publish long-range model runs of a Category 5 Hurricane bearing down on the Caribbean region or unnecessarily calling for “life-threatening” conditions when the reality is far from that.
The CMO is working with the Caribbean Disaster and Emergency Management Agency’s Comprehensive Disaster Management framework, the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems initiative and member states to draft model meteorological legislation and accompanying meteorology policy. “We’ve been able to develop draft legislation so far for eight of our member states. We’ve done another two for this year,” Laing said, adding that the CMO is finalising one for Barbados.
The final onus of responsibility will be with our dear readers. The reason these social media groups and pages reach the prominence they now have is a direct result of your interaction with the content. The spread of fear is perpetuated by following inflammatory pages and groups and sharing images and videos with the sole purpose of stoking fear. There are shortcomings in official sources, and I am one to point that out from time to time. But, if something appears too extreme to be true, it probably is.
It is important to keep in mind that if there is a tropical storm or hurricane warning in T&T, you should rely on information from the TTMS, which is a reputable source. Avoid getting information from random Facebook pages or WhatsApp forwards without any links to credible sources.