Tornado outbreak predicted from Texas to Missouri on Saturday

A tornado outbreak is predicted to occur on Saturday across the nation’s heartland. Violent storms could unleash significant tornadoes, large hail and destructive straight-line winds to much of Kansas, Oklahoma and North Texas. It’s the third day in a four-day onslaught of severe weather that has been targeting the Plains, and more storms are on the way Sunday, too.

The anticipated outbreak comes less than a day after swarms of devastating twisters tore through parts of Nebraska and Iowa, with additional tornadoes reported in eastern Kansas and Missouri and near Waco, Tex. Areas between Omaha and Des Moines were hit the hardest.

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has drawn a red bull’s eye on outlook maps for Saturday, corresponding to a rare Level 4 out of 5 risk of severe weather. “Several strong tornadoes will be likely, and a few long-track EF3+ tornadoes will be possible,” warned the agency, adopting an unusually dire tone in its public-facing bulletin.

“The greatest potential for severe storms will be from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and widespread damaging winds (some over 70 mph), are expected to occur,” the agency wrote. “A broader area of severe threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward to the Great Lakes.”

A tornado watch is already in effect for portions of northern Texas and western Oklahoma on Saturday morning until 1 p.m. local time.

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Saturday’s storm setup

Saturday’s setup is a truly bizarre one meteorologically. It’s practically unheard of for a tornado outbreak to occur just a day after a different weather system spawned an outbreak in a similar area. Victor Gensini, a tornado specialist and researcher at Northern Illinois University, bluntly tweeted “no” when asked if there was any precedent for similar back-to-back systems.

Ordinarily, such large-scale storm systems and thunderstorm complexes “clear the air” and sweep moisture out of a region, precluding further storms. But moisture returned overnight ahead of the next system - so prominently that the humid air mass could be seen as a line wafting northwestward on an Oklahoma-City-based radar.

Even after Saturday’s anticipated outbreak, more storms may occur from southeast Iowa to East Texas on Sunday.

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Areas at risk Saturday

A Level 4 out of 5 severe weather risk extends from southeast Kansas through North Texas just to northwest of Dallas. Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Norman and Moore in Oklahoma and Wichita Falls in Texas are within this zone. It also includes the entire Interstate 35 stretch in the state of Oklahoma, in addition to the H.E. Bailey Turnpike southwest of Oklahoma City.

Beyond that, a Level 3 enhanced risk stretches from Omaha and Des Moines south to Dallas, and also encompasses Kansas City. A broader Level 2 risk spans from northern Michigan to northwest Kansas to the Permian Basin and Rio Grande Valley of South Texas, representing a more isolated tornado threat.

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What to expect

Thunderstorms may be ongoing to start the day in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. Some of the storms ingest instability, or storm fuel, which ordinarily would cut back on how much additional thunderstorm activity would occur in the afternoon. Given how replete the air mass is with moisture, however, it’s expected that afternoon storms will form regardless, meaning this could be a multiphase event.

“Be prepared, have a place to shelter, and have multiple ways to receive warnings if storms should threaten your area,” wrote the Weather Service office in Norman, Okla., on X.

Morning storms could gradually intensify toward midday, and could produce hail, strong winds and a few tornadoes.

Then more storms will probably erupt by early to midafternoon along the dryline - or the leading edge of bone-dry desert air to the west. As that air mass clashes with moisture-rich air to the east, thunderstorms will blossom rapidly.

At the same time, a robust jet stream dip will be slicing overhead, with southwesterly winds traveling over 100 mph at the atmosphere’s mid-levels. That will contrast with southerly or south-southeasterly winds near the ground. The resulting change of wind speed and/or direction with height, known as wind shear, will foster rotating storms. (In essence, any storms that grow tall enough will span multiple layers of atmosphere and “feel” the changing winds, yielding rotation.)

These storms will probably form in west-central or western Oklahoma and Kansas, then push east toward the Interstate 35 belt, which runs south to north across the center of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. By the time they reach the highway, they’ll have the potential to produce long-track strong tornadoes. That will continue into the evening as storms persist east.

One wild card is that storms may interfere with one another and become messy. It’s unclear if that will reduce tornado risk. If nothing else, a messier structure will make it challenging to see or hear tornadoes as they approach.

Of additional note - flooding could be significant, particularly across central and eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and western Missouri. That’s where thunderstorm complexes will dump copious rains, with 3 to 5 inches (or more) possible following multiple rounds of storms. The Weather Service warns of a “moderate” risk of flash flooding and excessive rainfall.

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Saturday storms follow violent swarm of twisters on Friday

During Friday’s outbreak, the Weather Service issued 156 severe thunderstorm warnings and 101 tornado warnings from Texas to South Dakota. It logged at least 78 reports of tornadoes, the majority in eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa.

One particularly intense tornado appeared to have destroyed entire neighborhoods in the greater Omaha area after crossing Interstate 80 east of Lincoln. There were no immediate reports of fatalities, but social media imagery emerged of foundations wiped bare.

Multiple “tornado emergencies” were issued by the National Weather Service as storms swept from eastern Nebraska into southwest Iowa, representing the most dire tornado warnings that are a last-ditch effort to emphasize the life-or-death nature of a situation.

At first glance, radar data and damage indicators alike indicate the Omaha tornado may have been a rare “violent” tornado corresponding to EF4 strength or greater on the 0-to-5 Enhanced Fujita scale for twister intensity. Maximum winds probably approached or exceeded 170 mph, though the final determination will be made pending Weather Service storm surveys.

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Jason Samenow contributed to this report.